Over the past couple of weeks I've heard a lot of mouths and talking heads tell us why it is President Obama is going down to defeat, or why he is going to win a landslide. I've heard just about everything, but one: Historical Precedence.
Going to Wiki-Pedia (that bastion of ever accuracy) to do my research, I found a couple of interesting patterns. The first one I don't think applies, but I want to waste the space. Today's two dominant parties each had half of the 1800's. The Democratic-Republican Party and Democratic Party had total domination from 1800 to 1840. Then it switched back and forth with the Whig Party until 1860. Then the Republican Party had an iron fisted lock on the presidency through 1912.
Now we're in the 20th Century. There's a pattern that tells me President Obama stands a very good chance of being president through 2016. That is: Only one incumbent president was defeated for re-election in the middle of his party's eight year run in the White House.
What about G.H. Bush? What about Herbert Hoover? What about so-and-so?
Let's take a look. The first incumbent to be defeated was Howard Taft. He was defeated at the end of his party's 16 year run. From William McKinley to Theodore Roosevelt to Howard Taft. Then Herbert Hoover lost after twelve years. Of course George H. Bush after the same amount of time.
I also noticed something else: Only one president to ascend from being vice-president was defeated in trying for his own term. Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman, and Lyndon Johnson all became president after the death of the previous president. Then they all won election to their own term. Each opted not to run again again for a second full term.
Gerald Ford was the only president in the 20th Century to be defeated for election after serving out another president's term. He in turn would be defeated by the guy making my original point.
Jimmy Carter. The only incumbent president to be defeated for re-election in the middle of his part's eight year run in the White House. You had eight years of Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford before him. Then twelve years of Ronald Reagan and George H. Bush.
Total that's an awesome historical precedence for anybody challenging President Obama in 2012.
2012!
Screw that! I'm more worried about 2010. What movie should I watch tonight?
Scott Pilgrim Vs. The World
or
The Expenables?